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Study Suggests Millions of New Yorkers Infected
A preliminary survey of New York residents suggests that 2.7 million people in the state possibly have COVID-19. The study has some room for error. However, it suggests that the rate of people seriously infected and those who are dead is far lower than official estimates.
Governor Cuomo shocked the country on Thursday with news that the number of infected in New York could be ten times higher than official figures. This new estimate came from surveying a small number of New Yorkers. It aimed to see if they’ve already developed an immunity to the disease.
Antibody Count
The jump from roughly 250,000 official infections to the estimated 2.7 million is due to a new method of estimating case counts: the presence of coronavirus antibodies. Our immune system creates antibodies to ward off a specific bug. After encountering a pathogen, we create specific antibodies to fight it next time, which is why it’s unlikely to catch coronavirus twice. To have antibodies against COVID-19, one has to have caught it before.
By surveying regular residents of the state of New York for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies, researchers were able to get an idea of how many people have already contracted the disease. The results were a far cry from the official case count; 14% of the 3,000 residents surveyed had the antibodies. Based on that figure, one can conclude that the state’s true infection rate is nearer to 14%.
A similar study took place in Los Angeles, reaching a number of roughly 4% of those surveyed. This indicates that there could be up to 400,000 infections in the city alone, also well above the official count.
Issues with the Study
US scientists claim half of all New Yorkers have #coronavirus. NY has an estimated population of 20 million people. The city makes for 60-70% of all the population of #NewYork. But only 213, 779 cases have been reported. Millions more could be infected and cases could explode. pic.twitter.com/lcmdzHqmm8
— GentlemansPress (@GentlemansPress) April 16, 2020
The two surveys aren’t perfect, notably for their small sample size. In New York, only 3,000 people in a population of nearly 20 million were tested for the antibodies. Meanwhile, less than a thousand people in L.A. were tested.
Another major flaw in the study, at least in the case of New York, is that the survey targeted people in shopping malls, grocery stores, and other public spaces. This means the sample disproportionately represents people moving around in society, the people most likely to catch the disease. It’s far more likely for someone who spends time out of the house to contract the illness than people who are more seriously observing the quarantine.
However, if the data is even remotely accurate, we can safely draw two conclusions. The first is that many more people have coronavirus in the US than the official numbers suggest. This is based on the order of magnitudes. The second conclusion is that the rate of serious illness and death is far lower than our official numbers suggest.
Death Rate Likely Overstated
“If the infection rate is 13.9 percent, then it changes the theories of what the death rate is if you get infected.”
This was New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s major takeaway from the data. If the number of infected residents is truly closer to 2.7 million, that implies a rate of infection of about half a percent, far below the state’s official mortality rate of about 5%.
Aside from this encouraging news, Mr. Cuomo says the study can yield a great deal of actionable data. If the sample size is expanded he says, it can paint a better picture of which communities are hardest hit. It can also show which areas can afford to relax social distancing measures.
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1 Comment
You have to understand how necessary it is for the Democrat filth to restrict the First Amendment in order to prevent the opposition party’s ability to marshal an effective political campaign for the upcoming general election in November. Keeping the state impoverished and under house arrest prevents town hall meetings, candidate forums and fundraising events, phone banks, precinct walking, and most importantly, coordinating volunteer efforts to get out the vote. It also helps facilitate voter fraud…a Democrat specialty. You don’t really think that your governor gives a shit about your health and safety, do you?