A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll released Monday revealed that the Democratic Party has lost Hispanic and black voter support since the 2020 election, two critical demographics that the party needs to maintain its fragile, intersectional coalition.
Hispanic voters favored Democrats by 11 points in August. In October, that lead was reduced to five points.
Democrats have lost 26 points in Hispanic support in just four years.
The five-point margin in October is far less than the 28-point margin in 2020, when President Joe Biden was favored over former President Donald Trump. Democrats had a 31-point advantage among Hispanics in 2018.
Black voters are leaving the Democratic Party in droves. According to the poll, 17% of black voters would vote for a Republican in 2022. In 2020, that figure had dropped to 8%, a nine-point drop in just two years. In 2018, Republicans were supported by 8% of the population.
The WSJ polled 1,500 people between October 22 and 26, including 180 black voters with a 7.3 margin of error and 400 Hispanic voters with a 4.9 margin of error.
“It is wholly possible that Republicans reach a new high water mark among both African-Americans and Hispanic voters in this election,” Tony Fabrizio, the president’s lead pollster, told the outlet.
The polling is significant because the Democratic Party has consistently won the black vote by large margins since the 1960s, when Democrat former President Lyndon Johnson of a southern state was able to successfully solidify black support. Modern Democrats have attempted to attract Hispanic voters by forming an intersectional coalition of so-called marginalized groups.
However, with the rise of crime, illegal immigration, and inflation, which disproportionately affects less financially prosperous citizens, black and Hispanic voters have shifted to the Republicans.
According to Monday's polling results, Republicans will make significant gains in the 2022 midterm elections. Many races will almost certainly be decided by a single percentage point. Black and Hispanic voters could have a significant impact on which party controls Congress.
Women are also switching from the Democratic Party. According to recent polling, white suburban women have moved 27 points away from Democrats since August, favoring Republicans by 15 points. Twenty percent of the electorate is made up of white suburban women.