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Iowa Will Make Or Break Donald Trump
- Iowa caucus will be the first major test of Donald Trumps campaign and his staying power as the frontrunner of the GOP.
- For Trump to win he will need large caucus turnout particularly from those that don't normal participate.
- His campaign has upped their spending to reach as many people they can in the last week and his staff are feelign confident that they will come off with the win.
- Should Trump lose, then it will allow the other candidates to begin the narrative that he can and will be beaten.
For Donald , is more than just a race for delegates. It's a test of whether the celebrity businessman and political newcomer will be able to transform his record crowds into caucus-goers willing to brave the cold on Monday night to cast their votes.
, who appears to have emerged from a dead-heat with rival Ted Cruz to re-capture his position atop state polls, has done little to minimize expectations, predicting again and again that he'll do better than the polls suggest.
And as he traveled across the state in the final weekend before voting, had a quiet air of satisfaction, with seemingly little worry about the outcome.
See Related – Ted Cruz Lost Big In Debate
“We began this journey — it's a journey, we did it together — and it's been an amazing experience,” he told a crowd gathered in the auditorium of a middle school in Clinton Saturday. “Nobody thought it was going to turn out this way.”
But nonetheless implored his supporters to caucus Monday with equal doses of guilt, threats and humor.
“Wouldn't that be terrible if I lost in , won everywhere else? I'd be very angry, but only for a day,” he said, adding, “the bigger we can win by, the bigger the mandate, the more we can do.”
While other candidates have a great deal to lose or gain in the schools, churches and community centers where Iowans will gather after dark on Monday evening to cast the first votes of the 2016 presidential nominating contest, for , the spotlight is glaring.
Many remain skeptical has the organizational structure to pull off a commanding win. But even then, said Doug Watts, a GOP strategist who recently parted ways with rival Ben Carson's campaign, a win for is “pretty critical.”
If he doesn't win, Watts said, “people will start saying, ‘Hmm, well, maybe he's not so inevitable. Maybe Marco Rubio can climb into a solid second in New Hampshire.'”
“It leaves enough of a vacuum that the other campaigns can play off it, can leverage it into the spin that this is the beginning of the end. And you'll see a lot of that if he doesn't win,” he said.
A first-place finish in the state, coupled with a strong win in New Hampshire, where is leading widely, could effectively shut Cruz out, starving him of momentum heading into the southern contests where he expects to do well in March.
himself has spoken about the potential “psychological” consequences of a loss in the state, which will set the tone for the election going forward.
“They say bad psychological things happen if you lose,” he offered in a rare moment of introspection at a rally in Norwalk, . “I don't know what the impact is.”
The outcome will rest on turnout and whether campaign is able to lure the non-traditional caucus-goers who may have never participated in the caucus process.
team has been notoriously secretive about its operation, imposing what the campaign's architect, Chuck Laudner, recently described as “radio silence.”
Still, the confidence from team is palpable. Laudner told reporters earlier this month he felt “fantastic about the ground game.”
“There's nothing about this campaign that's like all the rest or any of those in the past,” he said. “We do things different. And we reach out to people that wouldn't normally be caught dead at caucus events. And so we feel really good about our chances, we feel really good about our reach and I think you're going to have a surprise on a caucus night.”
With few details emerging from the campaign, there is only anecdotal evidence gleaned from voters, many of whom still report never having received phone calls from the campaign or guidance on how to caucus.
A recent Monmouth University poll of likely caucus-goers found that, of the 45 percent of likely caucus-goers who'd been contacted personally by a campaign — 13 percent had been contacted about , versus 25 percent for Cruz.
While continues to draw massive crowds, many of those who attend ‘s rallies have attended three or four times. At events across eastern Saturday, many people in his audiences had traveled from out-of-state, traveling from nearby Illinois and as far away as Wisconsin. Many of his recent events have also been held on college campuses, which guarantee flocks of students, but fewer committed caucus voters.
Over the past week, team appears to have upped its voter outreach efforts, aggressively recruiting volunteers to a call center in West Des Moines. is now spending more on paid television and radio advertising than any other candidate in — a dramatic shift from earlier in the race.
Jamie Johnson, a longtime GOP operative in the state who worked with Laudner on caucus-winner Rick Santorum's campaign in 2012, believes operation has been underestimated.
He recalled a phone call from a 75-year old with several severe medical conditions, including agoraphobia, who'd suffered a minor heart attack last time she was in a crowd. Nonetheless, she said, she was determined to caucus for .
“She said she's going to risk having another heart attack so she can change her voter registration and support ,” recalled Johnson. “That was one of those moments for me when I knew was going to win this thing.”
By JILL COLVIN, Associated Press
54 Comments
because I’m tired of the white house politicians!
I’d venture to say that the majority of Americans are sick and tired of career politicians, voting as THEY please, instead of REPRESENTING The People. The Donald has the promise and hearts of true Americans.
The people in Iowa aren’t the only deciders of America
Who care what Iowa thinks?????
Regan won a land-slide with-out Iowa, besides this is not politics as usual, what is going on his a revolution, millions of democrats will be voting for Trump in November too.
The so-called experts and talking heads are in for a major surprise, they are talking, but few are listening.
The only poll that counts will be the one at the voting both come November.
I do not think anyone can or Should beat Trump
if he can’t be number 1
People want Donald Trump for president because he agrees with the issues that American citizens are concerned with. He is also a straight shooter.
donld trump will win because he speaks the truth wheather you like it or not and its time for a real change.
He has come out with no policies and has not a stratagy for developi g policies.
Trump is not your usual lying politician that makes empty promises. He tells it like it is. Like it or not. The blunt truth.
Because He speaks the straight truth. We need a no nonsense President who will right the wrongs, defend the Constitution and the second amendment for arms. Also rebuild our military and stand up to our enemies.
Why?? Because Americans are sick and tired of the political “elite” constantly taking more of our income, placing more restrictions on business and personal lives, stealing our Social Security that we’ve been forced to pay into our entire lives, disregarding the Constitution and our rights under it!! How many more reasons do you need?? I have more!!!
And Trump is not part of that ‘elite’.? He is a billionaire who will only represent the interests of the rest of the 1%
Because he cannot and will not go further. I know that the media keeps saying that he’s unstoppable but I think that America is smarter than that. They aren’t gonna vote an arrogant person like Trump into office. He’s was too narcissistic and has made fun of minority’s, handicapped people, low income people, and Muslim American’s, and he’s too out of touch with main stream America.
I:It takes more than Iowa to get the appointment
I don’t know whether he has what it takes. I hope and pray that we will get a good man in office not something like Obama.
Let’s just see what happens in Iowa tonight, I hope loads of people have crow tomorrow for lunch. The democrat front runner???should be in jail. The Repubs in name only ought to be under the bus & the elites in DC are scared to death.
He needs Iowa just to show the others that he is not just a joke, but a very good person to lead pu
cruz could not answer to a supporter —what he would replace Obama care with.
Hillary Clinton I put in the same category as Hanoi jane Fonda she let those people in Benghazi die
people are tired of the BS—why do u think there are so many trump suporters—they are tired of hearing double talk—Elect Clinton –u have 4 more years of o- bama
one thing is for sure –the U.S.A. is a business and should be run like one — Donald Trump could not do any worse than what we have—Thanks
Question is mote,he’s going to win.
Iowa is just one state. We have 49 others.
for one I think he will win at Iowa speaks the trouth I have kept to him from the start too poor to send money but he will always get my vote . thanks
Because he’s come this far and hasn’t faded at all. He has an inner energy that obviously keeps him going.
Iowa is nice to win, but both Huckabee and Santorium (to name a few of the more recent) won the Iowa caucus, only to lose the nomination.
A win for Trump will further his momentum, but a loss will not break his campaign.
His support of veterans will help win in Souch Carolina and other contests.
What retard woudl suggest building a big fence on American territory , and then charging the construction to a foreign (mexican) government . This man is taking you for mugs.
No he doesn’t need Iowa!
Losing one state is not critical to Trump’s campaign. Nevertheless, he won’t lose Iowa.
because DONALD IS GOING TO BE OUR PRESIDENT WE REALY NEED HIM MORE THAN ANY ELSE. HE IS THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN BRING OUR COUNTRY BACK TO US. GOD BLESS US ALL. GO GET EM DONALD
no it will never break trump as ted Cruz’s voters will wake up sooner than you all think all of you Americans how many of you borrowed or asked so many people to fund your job for you I didn’t I started at the age of 18 for $150.00 per month worked very had and my company helped me thru Marquette and stayed with them for 47 years as a great manager
We need him. Does not owe anyone favors.
Because he will be shown less invincible than his campaign claims.
As important as Iowa is [ the first primary ] may seem, nevertheless it is not a more typical mix of the nation’s population. Ted Cruz worked very hard over a very long period of time to secure his win BUT it was barely ahead of Trump. Wait until the other states hold their primary and lets see what transpires. Cruz is so committed to the conservative right that I feel he will alienate the vast and uncommitted majority. Trump is a deal maker and will produce on his ONE Major value–To make America great again. Cruz simply doesn’t have the muscle to secure this value. He appears to be despised by his Senate colleagues who will likely [and quietly] serve to undermine him. Bottom line, it is likely that many potential voters will simply stay home on election day and my biggest fear is that the left will then win by default!
Trump is the only one who has the “guts” to oppose the old line politicians and negotiate with people across the globe and do it so the US will come out on top!
Trump is the only one who has the “guts” to oppose the old line politicians and negotiate with people across the globe and do it so the US will come out on top!
I feel Trump is a strong candidate. He knows what he is talking about and he knows what the people of America want to get this nation back to where it needs to be.
GREAT QUALITIES TO SERVE THE FINANCIALS OF AMERICA NO ONE ELSE CAN DO IT NO ONE(WON)
Maybe he didn’t get this one, but he is still got what it takes to win.
I like Trump’s policies as far as immigration, tax reform, 2nd amendment, and veteran’s affairs, and foreign policy. but what troubles me is he has not addressed health care reform, and education. What troubles me further is he likes to fight and throw insults, not only to his fellow colleagues, but the people, that if he is elected, is supposed to serve. those are the actions that will cost him the White House in the long run. I think to be an effective candidate, one should be like a deadly snake in the grass, One will never see him coming as long as he keeps his opinions to himself. and operates a straight campaign.
That would be politics as usual. This election the status quo will no longer hold sway.
All he has to do is come close in Iowa then win NEW HAMP, S.CAR and NEV and the rout will be on. Huckabee out already, can Kasich and Christie be far behind?
He will go for long hall and stay in.
He will go for long hall and stay in.
He wont sell us out!!
This is a national election and the first state does not produce a winner or loser for the republican nominee.
He proved that he is not presidential by skipping the GOP debate and losing Iowa.
He is a vulnerable candidate now .
IOWA is 1 state. It is not a guarantee for anyone. There is still a race to run.
Can’t bring the USA back without him
he’s persistent. doesn’t quit. a fighter and a winner.
The problem is that I believe that voter fraud
exist and no real effort that is evident to me has been made to correct the situation. So what is new -politics as usual! How unfortunate for America.
Yes, he can !!!
I think he can win and hope he does, but he has to quit cutting people down except Clinton and tell people what and how he is going to make our country better, I still will vote for him…
1 state’s polls should not throw anyone’s decision.