Democrats may be excited about 2020, as most polls have gauged, but a new election model from Moody's Analytics shows that if the economy remains healthy, Donald Trump will easily win the 2020 election.
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once in 2016 when it predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win.
The model shows the uphill climb Democrats have regardless of what current polls are saying about the race.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics told CNBC.
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
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According to the report done by CNBC, Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low.
If those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.
Barring anything unusual happening like a full blown impeachment of the president, his Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.
Here's what people are saying about it on Twitter right now:
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming avg turnout.https://t.co/ixArJ6wxnt
— Vladimir Signorelli (@Vladimirth) October 15, 2019
Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model — Trump will win re-election easily in 2020 if the #economy holds up, modeling by @MoodysAnalytics shows, via @JeffCoxCNBCcom @CNBC: https://t.co/Dtgp7NFGyQ pic.twitter.com/myFvlTNH83
— Marketing & Sales Advisor to Global Tech Companies (@RobShiveley) October 15, 2019
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