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Political Science Professor Stands by Prediction: Trump Has a “91 Percent Chance of Winning in November”
A political science professor stands by his prediction model. It shows that President Trump has a “91 percent” chance of winning in November.
According to Mediaite, the professor’s “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” said Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth.
He added that his model, introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the results of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years.
“This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
Are my Trump-haters triggered by this? This model has predicted 25 of the past 27 POTUS elections correctly.
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020 https://t.co/x708u8rcQG #FoxNews
— SFA has never lost to Duke in men's basketball (@SanAntonioTim) July 9, 2020
The exceptions are John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, “when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote,” Mediaite explained.
Fox News explained that the professor’s model “examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion.”
Norpoth said that Biden is in a weaker position due to his poor showing in the first two primary races.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite.
“The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases,” he then added.
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