Shutdown Looms as GOP Withdraws Support for Stopgap Funding Bill

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House Speaker Mike Johnson’s attempt to push through a stopgap funding bill has run into serious trouble. The proposed bill, which aimed to extend government funding for six months beyond the October 1st deadline, was pulled from a scheduled vote on September 11th, 2024. This decision came after more than a dozen Republicans withdrew support, leaving the future of the bill uncertain.

The collapse of this vote highlights deep divisions within the Republican Party as well as the significant opposition from Democrats, who have vowed to block the bill if it includes the controversial SAVE Act. With just weeks before a potential government shutdown, the stakes are high, and both parties are preparing for a political showdown.

Internal GOP Struggles

Johnson’s bill was already on shaky ground. Despite having a small GOP majority in the House, Johnson faced mounting opposition from within his party. Several prominent Republicans, including Reps. Cory Mills and Jim Banks, opposed the bill, making it impossible for Johnson to secure the votes needed for passage. The Republicans’ slim majority allows for very little room to lose votes, and with even just a handful of defections, the entire proposal crumbled.

Some Republicans, such as Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), expressed doubts early on. Womack warned that the strategy would likely fail and that Johnson’s plan to appease the party’s right wing could be futile. With other members voicing similar concerns, Johnson’s position grew increasingly precarious. GOP members are now worried that the political fallout from a shutdown could damage the party’s chances in the upcoming elections.

Trump’s Influence Adds Complexity

Adding to Johnson’s woes, former President Donald Trump has inserted himself into the debate, demanding that the GOP not pass any spending plan that doesn’t include the SAVE Act, a voter ID law that requires proof of citizenship for registration. Trump, who remains a dominant figure within the Republican Party, has a loyal base that is highly influential over certain members of Congress. In a post on Truth Social, Trump urged Republicans to stand firm on election security, stating that the Democrats are trying to “stuff voter registrations with illegal aliens.”

While some Republicans back the plan, others are increasingly wary of its political risks. A government shutdown, especially just weeks before the November elections, could have disastrous consequences for the GOP. Swing-district Republicans, in particular, are concerned that their chances of holding onto seats could be severely damaged if voters blame the party for the shutdown. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) warned that a shutdown could be “catastrophic” and possibly “unrepairable” for Republicans in close races.

Democrats Stand United in Saying No to SAVE Act

Democrats have made it clear that they will not support any bill with the SAVE Act attached. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries labeled the act as a “poison pill” designed to derail the funding bill. The Democratic-controlled Senate has no intention of passing a stopgap measure that includes such controversial provisions, meaning that even if Johnson managed to get the bill through the House, it would be dead on arrival in the Senate.

House Democrats, led by Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), have been working hard to unify their members against Johnson’s plan. Democrats are also capitalizing on the GOP’s internal divisions, highlighting that the Republican Party is struggling to govern even with a slim majority. Jeffries criticized the influence of “extreme MAGA Republicans” over the GOP and predicted that the SAVE Act would prevent any meaningful compromise from being reached.

The Shutdown Threat Looms Larger

As the October 1st shutdown deadline approaches, pressure mounts on lawmakers to find a resolution. Republicans are facing increasing anxiety about the political ramifications of a government shutdown, particularly with the November elections looming just weeks away. Some GOP members, particularly those from swing districts, have voiced concerns that a shutdown could cost the party its majority in the House.

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) expressed alarm at the prospect, noting that a shutdown could have catastrophic consequences for military funding, farm subsidies, and veteran services. The Department of Defense, which relies heavily on government funding, would face significant disruptions, affecting national security and military readiness. Veterans could also face delays in receiving benefits and healthcare, while farmers may experience a reduction in critical subsidies that help sustain their operations.

While some Republicans continue to back the stopgap funding bill with the SAVE Act, others are beginning to question the political wisdom of pushing forward with a bill that is destined to fail in the Senate. The potential fallout from a shutdown, both politically and economically, could be devastating for the GOP, especially as they try to maintain their slim majority in the House.

What’s Next for the Stopgap Funding Bill?

The collapse of the vote on the stopgap funding bill leaves the government perilously close to a partial shutdown. Johnson and Republican leadership are scrambling to come up with a new plan, but with less than three weeks remaining before the deadline, the path forward is uncertain. Both Democrats and moderate Republicans are pushing for a clean, three-month funding extension, free of the controversial policy riders like the SAVE Act.

A clean extension would buy more time for negotiations and keep the government operating at current levels. However, hardline conservatives are opposed to any measure that doesn’t include provisions to address election security and other conservative priorities. This internal tug-of-war makes it difficult for Johnson to forge a compromise that will satisfy both the right wing of his party and the more moderate members, let alone win over Democrats.

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