The Election Is Too Easy For Trump

In a recent poll by NBC/ The Wall Street Journal/ and Marist, it shows Trump up by 15 points for the Indiana Presidential Primary tomorrow. If he keeps on that track, all of Senator Ted Cruz's hopes to stop the GOP front-runner will be washed down the drain.

At the moment, without Indiana, Trump needs to win 46% of the rest of the delegates to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win him the nomination. Indiana is the tipping point. Indiana awards its 57 delegates in a winner-take-all fashion, as well as winner-take-all in each congressional district. Therefore, if Trump wins, Trump wins. That would mean that he would only need to win 40% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. The hope for Cruz and Kasich to stop the powerhouse front-runner would be all but defeated.

It's not necessarily because of the Kasich/Cruz alliance that Ted Cruz is having such a hard time, but a poll, again by NBC/The Wall Street Journal/ and Marist, shows that 58% of likely Republican primary voters disapprove of the said alliance. Now Cruz needs to win 130% of the primaries to win the nomination. 

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Cruz and Kasich Join Forces To Roadblock Trump https://t.co/7pXQ5hkC6D

— Absolute Rights (@absoluterights) April 25, 2016

Not only has the alliance between Cruz and Kasich backfired in a big way, but now even delegates who had been on Cruz's side are starting to warm up to Trump. After his giant victory last Tuesday, winning five states all in one day, it appears that Cruz supporters are getting spooked. Of the ten North Dakota delegates on the Cruz slate reached by National Review, five express serious reservations about backing the Texas senator on that crucial first ballot. It seems that Trump continues to gain more favor, power, and speed as the primary elections go on. To make matters worse, Senator Ted Cruz is coming at this race with a win or die trying attitude. Recently he was asked if he would back Donald Trump if he got the nomination, the senator refused to answer. Not only would he not answer, he said he believes that Trump will lose to Hillary if he gets the GOP nomination. “If we lose this, we lose our country. We lose the Supreme Court for a generation, religious liberty is taken away, our kids are bankrupted,” he said.

Not to discourage Bernie Sanders but his hopes and “promise” for a contested convention are very far from reality. The Democratic nomination isn't determined by just pledged delegates. A candidate becomes the presumptive nominee when he or she crosses the 2,383 magic number consisting of both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Now in 2008 Obama passed that “magic number” with massive help from superdelegates, which consisted of 20% of all delegates (not it only 15%). Yet if we go by only ‘pledged' delegates Hillary now has a delegate lead that is three times the size of Obama's back in 2008. Not to mention that Clinton has 61% of all delegates compared to Sanders 39%. Clinton has to win 19% of pledged delegates t0 win the nomination, whereas Sanders has to win 81% to get the nomination.

It's becoming clear that the Presidential election is going to come down to Trump and Hillary.