Coronavirus: A Litmus Test for the Two Great Powers

Originating in China, Covid-19 is quickly approaching pandemic status, finding a foothold in every populated continent and growing rampantly in a number of countries. As the US prepares to face the disease head-on, it is important to understand just what the stakes are, and how China’s and the US response will shape global attitudes.

China’s Role and Response

Many believe that the Chinese government actually manufactured the virus and, through a contamination breach, accidentally released it to the public. This idea has been roundly rejected by the scientific community after thorough analysis of its genome, and the prevailing theory is that it originated from Wuhan’s exotic meat markets, known for their risk of attracting new viruses from wild animals such as bats. Regardless of where you stand, the fact is that the virus originated in China, and that it could have been prevented by more robust safety standards.

This is China’s first strike regarding its flawed response. Its second was its initial downplaying of the severity of the outbreak, made worse by heavy censorship of doctors and scientists on the front lines who tried to warn the international community of the disease’s rapid spread. The government likely fudged the official confirmed case numbers to reduce global panic, giving the virus ample time to infect thousands in China before a more aggressive response was launched.

On January 21st, the Communist leadership changed its approach. Xi Jinping said in a speech that anyone trying to cover up the impact of the virus would be nailed to a “pillar of shame”. This marked the beginning of a major effort toward containment, along with some greater transparency and cooperation with other nations regarding the virus.

At home, China implemented intense quarantine measures at the city-wide level. Every major city in Wuhan’s Hubei province was put on lockdown, with residents locked into their homes. Some elderly patients died a lonely and arguably unnecessary death, left without access to medical care or even basic necessities. Despite the draconian nature of China’s later response, it succeeded in greatly reducing the virus’ growth and from spreading more quickly around the world.

Now it’s Uncle Sam’s Turn

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President Trump’s initial response to the virus was to essentially ban travel to anyone who had been in China within the past two weeks. This aggressive response likely saved many American lives, as did China’s self-containment policies. As other countries saw rising infections, the list of countries with limited entry to the US grew to nations such as South Korea and Iran.

Thanks to a strong response in the form of travel restrictions, the United States has so far been spared the brunt of the bug’s wrath. This looks set to change shortly, with community transmission beginning to pop up all over the country. States like California and Washington are likely to see accelerated case growth in the weeks ahead. The tone of CDC officials has changed from “if” to “when” the virus begins to take hold in the United States, and how prepared the American public will be for it.

From hospital beds becoming scarce real estate, to shortages of preventative items like masks and hand sanitizer, the virus will certainly put a strain on the US healthcare infrastructure, social services, and the economy. The question is how well the US government and its citizens will anticipate the challenges ahead and minimize the fallout of the virus.

The world is watching. It is no secret that there is a quiet contest for global leadership today, as China challenges the international order in virtually all areas. While many countries prefer the US’ commitment to property rights, freedom of navigation, and the pursuit of greater liberty of nations and individuals, many other countries are tired of the US running the show. They see more in common with China’s transactional approach to diplomacy, with less focus on thorny issues like human rights.

How these two great powers respond to this global outbreak will be interpreted by many as a referendum on their ability to lead in times of crisis. For this reason, it is imperative that the United States rise to the occasion.