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What Happens if Trump and Harris End Up in an Electoral College Tie?
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The U.S. presidential election is determined by the Electoral College, not by the popular vote. A candidate must win at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes to become president. But what happens if no candidate reaches this threshold? In an unlikely yet possible scenario, a 269-269 tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could leave the election undecided, shifting the decision to Congress. This blog explores the consequences and the steps that would follow in such a tie, focusing on potential outcomes for both Trump and Harris.
While a 269-269 tie is improbable, it's not impossible. Current forecasts suggest only a 1-in-300 chance of such a result happening in 2024. The outcome would depend heavily on swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Both candidates could win certain key states, making it difficult for either to secure a majority. If neither Trump nor Harris reaches 270 electoral votes, the race would move to a “contingent election,” governed by the U.S. Constitution.
The Role of the U.S. House of Representatives
In the event of an Electoral College tie, the U.S. House of Representatives takes over to decide the president. However, the House's voting process is quite unique. Instead of each representative casting a vote, each state's delegation votes as a block. For a candidate to win, they must secure the votes of 26 out of 50 state delegations.
The current political landscape gives Republicans an advantage, as they control a majority in 26 state delegations. Even if Democrats hold the overall House majority, the GOP could still determine the outcome due to their state-by-state control. In this case, Donald Trump would likely emerge as the victor. Harris, despite potentially winning more individual House seats, would need a significant shift in state delegations to compete.
The Senate Picks the Vice President
While the House determines the president, the U.S. Senate chooses the vice president. In this process, each senator gets one vote, and the winner needs 51 votes to win. The 2024 Senate election will be crucial, as Republicans are projected to gain seats, giving them a possible edge. However, a few GOP senators critical of Trump, such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, might vote unpredictably.
If the House fails to elect a president by Inauguration Day (January 20), the Senate-elected vice president could serve as acting president until the tie is resolved. Thus, Kamala Harris or a Republican candidate could potentially assume the presidency temporarily, depending on the Senate's decision.
The Unique Electoral College System
The Electoral College is an institution unlike any other in global politics, and it serves as the decisive body in U.S. presidential elections. Its design allows for the possibility of an Electoral College tie, although this is rare. The system amplifies the importance of swing states and gives smaller states disproportionate power compared to their population size.
This system was established as a compromise between electing the president by popular vote and Congress. While it aims to balance the power between larger and smaller states, critics argue that it often leads to undemocratic outcomes, like a candidate winning the presidency without securing the popular vote.
Potential Resolution of the Electoral College Tie
In a Trump-Harris electoral college tie, several outcomes are possible:
- Trump Wins: If the House votes along current lines, Trump could secure the presidency with the support of 26 state delegations.
- Harris as Acting President: If the House deadlocks past Inauguration Day and the Senate picks Harris as vice president, she could serve as acting president.
- Split Presidency and Vice Presidency: The House could choose one candidate for president, while the Senate picks the other for vice president, potentially leading to a Trump presidency with Harris as vice president, or vice versa.
While Improbable, An Electorial College Tie Between Trump and Harris Remains Possible
Although an Electoral College tie between Trump and Harris is unlikely, it would trigger one of the most complex processes in American politics. The House would elect the president, and the Senate would decide the vice president, potentially leading to a split administration. This unique scenario underscores the importance of every swing state and the critical role of Congress in determining the outcome of a presidential election.
What do you think about a potential electoral college tie between Trump and Harris? Would the US solve this problem immediately? Let us know what you think!