Mexico’s Handling of Coronavirus Challenge Impacts the US

Mexico's president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), has been criticized in recent weeks for failing to take seriously the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic that has overwhelmed health care systems and caused at least 35,000 deaths worldwide. If that country of 130 million – with which the United States shares a 2,000-mile border and engages in $620 billion in two-way trade – mismanages the COVID-19 crisis, it could do collateral damage to an already weakened US economy.

As of March 30, Mexico reported just under 1,000 cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 20 deaths. Although these numbers may be ascribed to a lack of testing, these figures are tiny fractions of the numbers of reported cases and deaths reported in the United States, which are 143,000 and 2,500, respectively. However, senior national health officials have identified the risk of an exponential rise in the number of cases, despite the fact that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) spent precious weeks downplaying the threat.

Mexico's president, AMLO, has resisted severe measures to stem the spread of #coronavirus for fear of damaging the economy. But at what price? My @nytvideo from CDMX: https://t.co/fih7C0aIMy pic.twitter.com/QOzTQCfXe0

— Brent McDonald (@docubrent) March 24, 2020

As recently as March 22, AMLO coaxed Mexicans not to paralyze the economy but to “live life as usual”; he said he would advise the country when stricter measures were necessary. A full week before this Facebook broadcast, public health officials moved up Holy Week vacations by two weeks, effectively closing public schools and many businesses for a full month. They also counseled “social distancing” about the same time that the practice was recommended by US authorities.

Last Friday, AMLO caught up with his own coronavirus team, at last urging Mexicans to stay at home at all costs to prevent a spike in infections that could overwhelm hospitals. The national coordinator, under Secretary of Health Hugo López-Gatell, said pointedly, “This is the last chance we have. We can't lose it.”

Mexico's public health care system would be overwhelmed if there is an outbreak of coronavirus on the scale of the United States; the impact would catastrophic if it reaches proportions found. According to a data model being applied at University of Pennsylvania hospitals, five percent of cases require hospitalization, two percent require ICU beds, and one percent require ventilators. Mexico has 1.2 intensive care unit (ICU) beds per 100,000 persons – compared to 12 in Italy and 30 in the United States. A nation of 125 million people, Mexico has 2,000 ventilators, compared to at least 170,000 ventilators of various kinds in the United States.

AMLO's cost-cutting may have left Mexico's public sector less capable of responding to this crisis. His 2019 budget included significant cuts in the public health sector, leading to a layoff of 10,000 health professionals. Steep pay cuts and political purges may have depleted a professional team that won high marks for its handling of the 2009 H1N1 crisis, in which Mexico was ground-zero for infections. Then-president Felipe Calderon imposed stringent measures to mitigate the spread of the infection, and he shared data quickly and transparently with the public and global responders. On that occasion, Mexican officials implemented a 2003 national plan for preparing and responding to pandemics. Mexico's economy was hard hit by the crisis, but the government's rapid response was credited with the quick and robust recovery that followed.

“This is going to be as bad as Italy or worse.”

As much of the world shuts down amid the coronavirus pandemic, Mexico City’s streets are bustling and the country’s president insists on calm. https://t.co/ep7uhoQYbu

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 24, 2020

Even before this global health crisis, Mexico's economy was slumping, with oil revenue and international investment falling significantly. AMLO has undermined confidence in the economy by meddling in energy sector reforms while ignoring a public security crisis caused by drug-related violence. His reluctance to shutter the economy over the coronavirus may be because poor citizens who depend on the large informal sector are particularly vulnerable in hard times.

President Trump has restricted nonessential crossings at the US borders with Canada and Mexico as part of the coronavirus response, but some Mexicans believe their government should do the same. These new restrictions do not apply to merchandise trade between the United States and Mexico. And, in recent years, migration statistics confirm that there are more Mexicans leaving the United States than arriving. However, an abrupt economic downturn in Mexico could have serious consequences at the border and across the board in the bilateral relationship.

Learn more: The perfect storm in Venezuela | Western Hemisphere's top diplomat faces reelection | On coronavirus and Cuban doctors

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