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Election 2016

The Common Law Of Common Law



Why Trump Became The Republican Nominee

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To a lot of people, the victory of Donald Trump as the Republican Presidential Nominee came as a shock, to others it was an inevitable outcome that was long in the making. No matter what way you look at it, the events that led to the Trump campaign victory came about for a number of reasons, all of which are perfectly explainable. In the beginning of this entire process, 6 Democratic candidates started running in the presidential primaries, whereas 17 candidates were running for the Republican party. 1,237 delegates are needed to win the nomination outright, after Indiana's primary election Donald Trump had 1,053, meaning he was only a mere 184 delegates away from winning outright. At the end of the Indiana primary election, Cruz was left with 565 delegates and Kasich was left with 153 delegates. So far there are 514 delegates still available in this year's primaries.

Now Cruz and Kasich knew that there was no possible way for them to win the nomination outright, especially with Trump's massive lead in delegates. Yet, there is also another option. If they were able to hold Trump off from winning outright, they could cause the nomination election to go to a Republican Contested Convection, which would allow the heads of the Republican party to vote for the nominee. This would in effect,  allow for each contestant to have a far “fairer” chance at winning the nomination. Yet after Indiana's victory, that possibility became impossible.


The states that are left are; West Virginia, Nebraska, Kentucky, Oregon, Washington, North Dakota, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexica, South Dakota, and Washington D.C. That means only 12 states are left with like I said above, 514 delegates available between them. With the massive lead that Trump had, the probability that Trump would not win the nomination outright is very small. If each candidate won an even number of delegates, which would be 171.33, Trump would only be 13 delegates away from winning outright.Yet the constant drop in support from both Cruz and Kasich made that outcome highly unlikely.

Not only was the inevitable a giant reason for Cruz and Kasich to drop out of the race, but campaigning takes money and a lot of it. All together Ted Cruz raised roughly $140 million dollars for his campaign, yet by the end of April, he had already spent over $100 million dollars. With 12 states to go and an inevitable defeat in store, not only was the most fiscal financial choices to drop out but politically it was also. Kasich actually went negative with his raised campaign money, he raised roughly $29.2 million but spent $33.5 million. 

The positive side to dropping out of the presidential primary is obvious, you get more time to come up with a strategy to run next election. Everyone in America knows that we have an affinity with an underdog, and to Ted Cruz's defense he wasn't overly unliked. In the beginning, even he was beating Trump in popularity, it wasn't until after the three state victory by Trump that voters started to waiver in their views of Cruz.

The question is whether or not Trump will come to face Clinton or Sanders. A lot of people think that the race is in the bag for Hillary but if you look at the numbers Sanders isn't very far behind and like I said there are 12 states left. Sanders, 571 delegates, is only a mere 651 delegates behind Clinton's 1,221 delegates. Now that seems like a large gap but considering that Clinton needs 1,161 delegates to win the nomination outright, Sanders has a large chance of catching up. The main point that swings the vote into Sanders favor is that the Southern states have already voted, which Hillary dominated, yet the remaining states are more demographically favorable for Sanders. So at this point, it is still anyone's game.

The only thing we know for sure is that whoever the Democratic nominee is, they will have a great opponent in Donald Trump who so far has dominated the Republican nomination.

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