Heading into Election Night, both major parties have reason to be concerned. Despite polling and early voting consistently showing a Joe Biden lead, the numbers are so close that they often fall into the margin of error. And with Republicans relying heavily on in-person day-of voting to avoid any voter fraud or US Postal Service blunders, it will be impossible to make any early predictions.
More than any other year, this election will play out in the swing states. Specifically, 8 states may decide who ends up in the White House for the next 4 years: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
With most states falling squarely into their traditional “Red” or “Blue” roles, many electoral votes are already allotted to a candidate. The states that can go in either direction and offer 10+ electoral votes will ultimately tip the scales to one candidate or the other. Trump or Biden will require 270 electoral votes to win.
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In 2016, Trump bested Hillary Clinton by winning 307 electoral votes to her 231. On Election Eve four years ago, Clinton was predicted to win by the same margin predicted for Biden in 2020 – which goes to show that polls only offer so much guidance prior to a final count.
Where Trump Stands Compared to 4 Years Ago
In the 8 key battleground states, Trump has lost some ground with suburban voters and female voters. Many voters are critical of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the base that he plays to remains strong, and his in-person rallies have drawn thousands of attendees.
Arizona: 11 Electoral Votes
Trump won Arizona by 4 points in 2016; the current prediction in 2020 is for Biden to pull out a 4-point lead. In the final days prior to the election, Biden has poured more dollars into advertising in the Phoenix market than he has anywhere else in the country. But Arizona has only voted for one Democratic candidate since 1964.
Florida: 29 Electoral Votes
Trump took Florida by 1 point in 2016, and Biden holds a 1-point lead in 2020. Florida is a true toss-up, with Trump having made 3 visits to the state in the last week. Florida Democrats failed to register as many new voters as they aimed to, despite many felons having their voter rights recently reinstated.
Georgia: 16 Electoral Votes
Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5 points, and Biden is showing a measly 1-point lead heading into the election. Georgia hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1992. Things are looking peachy for Trump in Georgia.
Michigan: 16 Electoral Votes
Trump eked out a victory in Michigan in 2016 by a mere 10,704 votes. This year, Biden holds a firm 8-point lead in the state that had turned blue for six consecutive elections prior to Trump’s 2016 win. Michigan has had a tumultuous year, with Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer imposing harsh coronavirus restrictions, and armed citizen militias challenging her on the steps of City Hall on numerous occasions. The recently uncovered plot to kidnap the tyrannical governor may just turn the state blue again.
Minnesota: 10 Electoral Votes
Clinton took Minnesota in 2016, and Biden is leading as we head into Election Day. But Trump keeps visiting the state and has strong support outside of the large cities. Minnesota has voted Democratic since 1976, so a Trump win in the state would be a huge and surprising upset.
North Carolina: 15 Electoral Votes
Trump won North Carolina by 4 points in 2016, and Biden’s lead is within the margin of error in 2020. Trump’s base will have to stay strong and show up to the polls for him to pull out a win, but North Carolina typically leans Republican.
Pennsylvania: 20 Electoral Votes
Trump won Pennsylvania by just 1 point four years ago, and the polls show Biden holding a 5-point lead. But despite Pennsylvania being Biden’s “hometown,” Trump has incredible support across the state.
Wisconsin: 10 Electoral Votes
Trump narrowly took Wisconsin four years ago, but he trails Biden by a considerable 9-point deficit in 2020. His recent rallies have drawn thousands of loyal supporters, so the polling may again be entirely inaccurate here. Wisconsin was firmly blue for many years, but in the last three elections has turned more and more red, with Trump finally breaking their blue wall in 2016.
Despite the mainstream media spending the last four years trashing Trump on every topic, every piece of legislation, and every personal scandal he has endured in his 74 years, the Republican party reports that support for the president is even stronger than it was in 2016. Democrats have proven to be a party that represents tantrums and violence, and voters fear the Progressive agenda that Kamala Harris would bring to the White House.